Abstract

We study the impact of term-limited working contracts on fertility intentions in contemporary Europe, adding a further element to the theoretical and empirical discussion, i.e. the role of subjective well-being (SWB). We posit that individuals might differ with respect to how they react and take decisions in uncertain economic situations and economic uncertainty itself may lead to different levels of SWB, which, in turn, may affect fertility. This paper explores the possibility that the impact of employment uncertainty on fertility intentions is channeled by individuals’ level of SWB. We test this hypothesis by adopting a formal framework for causal inference and applying techniques of mediation analysis. We use two rounds of the European Social Surveys (ESS 2004 and 2010), comparing data collected before the onset of the Great Recession and while the crisis was underway.