Giornate di Studio sulla Popolazione (Popdays), Giornate di Studio sulla Popolazione 2017

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Stimulating fertility with monetary pro-natal policies — how effective is it? Evaluating recent Russian experience
Oxana Sinyavskaya

Building: Main Venue Building
Room: room 8
Date: 2017-02-09 02:00 PM – 03:30 PM
Last modified: 2017-01-23

Abstract


From 2007 to 2014 total fertility rate in Russia increased from 1.42 to 1.75. To what extent this growth is related to a package of family policy measures introduced in 2007 — the maternity (family) capital program, the new rules of monthly childcare allowance assignment, and other changes? Since all measures were introduced simultaneously, it is only possible to estimate their cumulative effect on subsequent fertility behavior. Using panel Russian Generations and Gender Survey data collected in 2004, 2007 and 2011, this study assesses how family policy changes introduced in 2007 were related to the fertility behavior in Russia in recent years. Eventually we do not find any statistically significant increase in the chances of having second and subsequent births in 2007-2011 in comparison with the period of 2004-2007. We also find that the policy changes might have influenced women differentially, and might have had significant influence on less educated women and women from low income households. Unfortunately, the size of the GGS sample does not allow capturing these differences within this study. We acknowledge that the observed fertility changes might be related only to the calendar shifts in fertility behavior and recuperation of fertility decline observed in 1990-s.

Keywords


fertility; pro-natal policy; Russia