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International Trade, Marriage, and Fertility
Luca Stella, Osea Giuntella, Lorenzo Rotunno

##manager.scheduler.building##: Velodromo - Bocconi University
##manager.scheduler.room##: N06
Date: 2019-01-25 09:00 AM – 10:30 AM
Last modified: 2018-12-26

Abstract


Previous literature has examined the effects of labor market shocks stemming from international manufacturing competition on the marriage-market value of men, and in turn on marriage and fertility rates Autor et al. (2017). Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we analyze the effects of  trade between Germany, East China and Eastern Europe on marital behavior and fertility of German workers. First, we confirm the previous finding on the negative effects of trade on the employment and labor market opportunities of manufacturing workers. Second, we show that individuals working in sectors that were more affected by the trade integration with Eastern Europe and China were less likely to have children. In contrast, fertility was larger among workers in sectors that benefited from increased exports. Consistent with Dauth (2014, 2017), our results are driven by the rise of  trade with Eastern Europe.


Keywords


Trade, Marriage, Fertility