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Globalization and childbearing: Estimating the effect of the China Import Shock on fertility
Arnstein Aassve, Francesco Chiocchio, Letizia Mencarini

##manager.scheduler.building##: Velodromo - Bocconi University
##manager.scheduler.room##: N01
Date: 2019-01-26 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM
Last modified: 2018-12-26

Abstract


The paper presents an analysis of the relationship between globalisation and fertility intensity and timing. Globalisation is measured in terms of exposure to international trade, which is held up against individuals' decision making in terms of childbearing. The underlying hypothesis is that higher levels of international competition affects fertility behaviour in a negative way. The hypothesis is tested by using the British Household Panel Survey whereas globalisation is measured in terms of Import Competition Shocks from China. Using a logit model, we show that people who work in an industry that faced a higher level of competition from China have a lower probability of having a child and have a higher duration.

Keywords


Fertility, Import shock, gloablization, survival analysis