##manager.scheduler.building##: Velodromo - Bocconi University
##manager.scheduler.room##: N06
Date: 2019-01-26 09:00 AM – 10:30 AM
Last modified: 2018-12-26
Abstract
In recent years we witnessed a resurgence of measles even in countries where, according to WHO guidelines, elimination should have already been achieved. The reasons are several, spanning from the raise of anti-vaccination movements to weak health infrastructures and low coverage of routine programs.
We simulated the evolution of measles immunity profiles in nine distinct countries for the period 2018-2050 and evaluated the effect of possible adjustments of current immunization strategies on the overall fraction and age distribution of susceptible individuals in different demographic settings. The proposed model accounts for country-specific demographic components, current immunity gaps and immunization activities in place in 2018. The model shows that, under current vaccination policies, the susceptible fraction of the population would remain below the measles elimination threshold only in Singapore and South Korea. For the other countries, current vaccination policies are not sufficient to achieve and maintain measles elimination. Strategies targeting unvaccinated children before they enter primary school can remarkably enhance the fulfilment of WHO targets.