##manager.scheduler.building##: Velodromo - Bocconi University
##manager.scheduler.room##: N06
Date: 2019-01-25 09:00 AM – 10:30 AM
Last modified: 2018-12-26
Abstract
Temporary increases in fertility after armed conflicts are common but it is difficult to determine why or how they happen. This paper focuses on the factors that drove high fertility amongst survivors of the 1982 Río Negro Massacres in Guatemala. It evaluates the role of pronatalism, replacement fertility, scarring effects, and population structure in this process using a unique genealogical dataset. Data are analysed using demographic rates, regression models, and qualitative evidence. The paper shows evidence of a collective fertility response to excess mortality, with pronatalist ideals being enforced by relatives. There was no evidence of a fertility postponement/catch-up effect. The massacres had ‘scarring’ effects for women – those more exposed to the violence had lower subsequent fertility and suffered from social stigma. They were less likely to find a partner and bear children after the killings. Surviving men tended to marry considerably younger women and women from other communities. The killings disrupted the availability of modern contraception, but the forced resettlement of the population in a military-run camp eventually increased access to public healthcare, education, and employment. The paper discusses how these processes resulted in high and low fertility across subsets of the surviving population.