Giornate di Studio sulla Popolazione (Popdays), Giornate di Studio sulla Popolazione 2017

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Fecondità in Italia: un’analisi spaziale e temporale
Sara Miccoli

Building: Main Venue Building
Room: foyer
Date: 2017-02-09 03:30 PM – 04:30 PM
Last modified: 2017-01-23

Abstract


Italy is one of the European countries with the lower number of births and the lower Total Fertility Rate (TFR). Behind the past and recent trends of fertility in Italy there are important differences between geographical areas and various Italian territories. This work aims to study the evolution of Italian fertility over the past eleven years by using a spatial perspective and, in particular, by analyzing the relation between TFR and demographic and economic variables in 103 Italian provinces. The data are taken from the Survey on Live Births, the Resident Population, Labour Force Survey and they are in the form of spatial panel. The main independent variable is the provincial TFR and the covariates are the proportion of women of childbearing age, the proportion of foreign population, the female activity rate and the youth unemployment rate for the age class 25-34. A linear mixed model with spatially correlated errors, which take into account correlations in time and space, is used to verify the space-time evolution of fertility and the relations between TFR and the covariates in the years 2004-2014 in the Italian territories.


Keywords


fertility, spatial analysis, Italy