The age of the baby-boom, in Italy, he scored an insurmountable for the history of fertility in our country. That decade at the turn of the fifties and the sixties saw an increase births in the same absolute sense and, simultaneously, dramatically reduce child mortality, creating the conditions for a large cohort of workers in the future. After the peak in 1964, the last year to more than a million births, begins an inexorable decline, with reductions in the amount of births, of 2-3% per year, values which bring the number of babies born around the threshold of half a million of births. An important aspect, however, be pointed out, in the evolution of Italian fertility of the last half century, it is certainly the different age structure of the reproductive rates. Young age has given way to a more shifted to the age traditionally considered the threshold for fertility, emphasizing a delay in procreation confirmed by the rise in the average age at delivery and exasperated, especially the birthright. With a family of ARMA models, we try to estimate the possible evolutions of specific ratios, to affirm a hypothesis of a rise of Italian fertility.

The age of the baby-boom, in Italy, he scored an insurmountable for the history of fertility in our country. That decade at the turn of the fifties and the sixties saw an increase births in the same absolute sense and, simultaneously, dramatically reduce child mortality, creating the conditions for a large cohort of workers in the future.

After the peak in 1964, the last year to more than a million births, begins an inexorable decline, with reductions in the amount of births, of 2-3% per year, values which bring the number of babies born around the threshold of half a million of births. An important aspect, however, be pointed out, in the evolution of Italian fertility of the last half century, it is certainly the different age structure of the reproductive rates. Young age has given way to a more shifted to the age traditionally considered the threshold for fertility, emphasizing a delay in procreation confirmed by the rise in the average age at delivery and exasperated, especially the birthright. With a family of ARMA models, we try to estimate the possible evolutions of specific ratios, to affirm a hypothesis of a rise of Italian fertility.