Font Size: 

On the basis of two general assumptions (a) that the variability of the general shape of the human-hazard function is limited and (b) that mortality and fertility cannot vary independently of each other, at least, not for long), we derive analytically that the age structure of a closed population will always tend towards a “reference” age structure, which is that of the stable population characterized by the current (cross sectional) mortality level. In the empirical part we analyzed the general dynamics of vital rates and the age structures of eight European populations with long demographic series, taking our data from Mitchell’s International Historical Statistics and from the Human Mortality Database. The application of Error Correction Models corroborated our conjectures on the existence of a long term equilibrium between the death and the birth rate on the one hand, and of a convergence of the actual towards the reference age structure on the other.

Stable population; Demographic transition; Population ageing; Age structure; Homeostasis